The AI Capital Trap
Why a transformative technology can still produce one of the largest capital-destruction cycles in modern financial history.
Read the essayIndependent analysis
Clear thinking about complicated systems.
Independent writing on AI, technology, operations, and the economics behind the systems we build.
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The Deliverable Megawatt
AI's power bottleneck is not electricity in the abstract. It is the firm-service bundle at a specific place and date—and the contract that decides who pays if the forecast is wrong.
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Meta Is Running Two AI Companies
One AI program improves a proven advertising machine. The other is building new platforms and revenue lines. Investors cannot see what each one costs.
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Evidence first. Uncertainty stated. Arguments built to be challenged.
Primary sources
Claims link back to filings, original data, and first-party documents whenever possible.
Visible assumptions
Models and forecasts expose their assumptions instead of hiding them behind a conclusion.
Honest countercases
Strong arguments explain what could make them wrong and which evidence would change the answer.